AGP Executive Report

EU-Armenia Trade Push: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged €52m in urgent aid and proposed tariff-free access for about 80% of Armenian exports to the EU, with EU experts due in mid-July to help producers meet standards and shift away from Russian market pressure. Rail Connectivity: Armenia has started preparatory work to restore key railway sections to Turkey and Azerbaijan, with PM Nikol Pashinyan saying Yerevan will do parts of the job itself while talks continue with Russia on remaining segments. Energy Policy Debate: An Armenian energy expert questioned von der Leyen’s promises of EU support against Russian gas disruptions, arguing subsidies won’t fix systemic energy security and noting Armenia’s gas transmission is fully owned by Gazprom. Macroeconomic Snapshot: Armenia’s gross international reserves hit a record $5.863bn by June 2026, up on the year. Public Safety Rules: Mandatory dust suppression measures were introduced for construction sites nationwide, including monitoring and emission-control requirements. Justice & Politics: Republican Party vice-chairman Armen Ashotyan’s detention was extended by one month, while a cybercrime protest demanded the resignation of the IC chairman.

EU Trade Pivot: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged tariff-free access for about 80% of Armenian exports to the bloc, alongside €52m in fresh aid, as Brussels tries to cushion Armenia from Russian “economic coercion.” Connectivity Push: The EU also unveiled up to €200m for South Caucasus transport, energy and digital links, plus a €20m “peace dividends” program near the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Energy Debate: Armenian energy expert Vahe Davtyan questioned whether EU promises can deliver real long-term energy security, noting Armenia’s gas transmission is fully tied to Gazprom and renewables can’t fully replace thermal and nuclear capacity. FX & Reserves: Armenia’s gross international reserves hit a record $5.863bn in June; the dram eased slightly versus the dollar while the euro rose. Tax & Consumer Costs: Parliament approved excise tax schedule changes for 2027-2029, with rates for alcohol and tobacco adjusted from Feb 1, 2027. Regulation Watch: Armenia approved new EU export registration rules for fish producers and introduced tighter online gambling oversight; it also moved to align drug control mechanisms with EAEU standards. Local Business & Compliance: A fuel station (Alex 33) was fined for underfilling. Water Supply: Armenia’s Water Committee and Veolia Jur denied reports of worsening Yerevan water schedules. Agriculture Finance: Government launched subsidized greenhouse lending to support vegetable, berry and flower producers. Geopolitical Noise: Another shipment of Russian wheat reportedly arrived in Armenia via Azerbaijan transit.

EU-Armenia Trade Push: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged an additional €18m for Armenia and tariff-free access for ~80% of exports to the EU, aiming to help Yerevan diversify after Russia’s trade curbs. Connectivity & Investment: Von der Leyen also announced up to €200m in grants for South Caucasus transport, energy and digital links, with potential to mobilize up to €2bn in total investment. Railway Concession: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Armenia will not unilaterally terminate the South Caucasus Railway management deal with Russia, while work to restore Gyumri–Akhurik and Yeraskh sections has started. Energy & Daily Life: Veolia Jur switched Yerevan to a 17–19 hour water supply schedule from July 1 amid heat-wave pressures. Finance & Payments: Armenia’s number of virtual POS terminals is nearing 6,000 and cashless use keeps expanding. Tech & Education: Legrand delivered an Nvidia-powered AI supercomputer to Yerevan State University. Governance Watch: Armenia is debating an IMEI registration approach with privacy guarantees, and also considers residency requirements for voters.

EU Trade Pivot: The European Commission says it will make nearly 80% of Armenian exports tariff-free in the EU, with access covering almost 99% of fresh fruits/vegetables and over 90% of beverages and spirits, alongside an extra €18m (final tranche of a €52m package) to help diversify trade away from Russia; the plan still needs EU member-state and Parliament approval. Energy & Connectivity: PM Nikol Pashinyan and EC President Ursula von der Leyen also discussed deeper energy links with Türkiye and Azerbaijan, EU help to diversify energy supplies (including EU experts arriving next week), and broader regional transport/digital connectivity under a Global Gateway push. Railway Control: Pashinyan said Armenia is restoring key rail sections (Gyumri–Akhurik and Yeraskh/Arazdayan) and insisted railways are Armenia’s property and must serve national interests, while talks on remaining sections continue with Russia. Phone IMEI Debate: Pashinyan framed IMEI registration as a way to curb shadow phone trade, stressing data-protection guarantees are needed before implementation; officials and experts raised questions about the legal basis and risks. Tax & Export Support: Armenia proposed revised excise tax rates for 2027–2029 (including major cuts for domestic cognac and some vodka categories) and extended export compensation for July, adding dried fruits/vegetables and trout/sturgeon. Local Business & Culture: Armenia will host its first honey festival in Vayots Dzor on July 25, supporting rural producers and linking to COP17. Governance Watch: A memorandum to improve corporate governance in state-owned enterprises was signed, while Armenia’s Constitutional Court continues hearings on election challenges.

EU Connectivity Push: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a “Peace through Connectivity Package” for the South Caucasus, with up to €200m in grants (plus up to €2bn in investment) for transport, energy and digital links, and an extra €20m for peace-fostering support in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Energy & Trade Diplomacy: Von der Leyen also praised Azerbaijan as a reliable energy partner and highlighted plans for renewable power, including a proposed electricity cable to Armenia. UAE Fuel Expansion: Emarat Petroleum opened its first branded service station in Yerevan via a partnership with MegaTrade, with plans to roll out an integrated network across Armenia. Public Infrastructure Funding: Yerevan Municipality approved $650m for the Ajapnyak metro station, metro modernization, and electric buses. Water & Environment: Armenia approved the Lake Sevan Basin Wastewater Management project to modernize treatment facilities in three stages. EAEU Ruble Pressure: EAEU banks are tightening cash ruble handling amid a ruble surplus; some Armenian banks have suspended cash ruble deposits while cashless transfers continue. Cybercrime Fallout: Victims of cybercrime and investment fraud protested outside the government, demanding effective restitution mechanisms and warning that IMEI registration could enable new scams. TRIPP Update: Armenia says it is not discussing Russian involvement in TRIPP for now; the project is being implemented in the Armenia–U.S. format under EAEU rules.

Armenia–Russia Trade Tensions: Deputy FM Mnatsakan Safaryan says Yerevan is not discussing Russian involvement in TRIPP; the corridor is in the Armenia–U.S. format and transit would follow EAEU rules. Energy Costs: Armenia’s regulator kept natural gas tariffs unchanged for residents (up to 148 drams per cubic meter), pushing any wholesale review to later. EU Outreach & Connectivity: EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Baku, with a €200m connectivity package and an extra €20m for peace programs including Armenia. Banking Pressure from Russia: Reports say some EAEU banks, including in Armenia, have suspended cash ruble operations or added steep fees amid ruble cash surpluses. Export Rules for EU: Armenia plans new procedures for registering fish producers to export to the EU via the EU Trade Control and Expert Assessment System. Tech & Finance: IDBank highlighted its fintech ecosystem (QR payments and “buy now, pay later” Rocket Line) at a major business forum. Tourism & Business Links: Armenia extended visa-free travel for UAE residents and promoted exports via a “Made in Armenia” expo in Tallinn; South Caucasus Railways also launched a second European tourist rail tour. Governance Reform: Armenia’s finance ministry flagged improved corporate governance in state-owned firms as a priority reform area.

Health Regulation Overhaul: Armenia’s parliament is tightening medicine quality and safety rules, including clearer procedures for manufacturing/distribution compliance certificates and stronger grounds for suspending or terminating licenses. Counterfeit Drug Controls: Lawmakers also approved measures to regulate the destruction of counterfeit and expired medications, aiming to stop “paper-only” destruction and require proper oversight. Universal Health Insurance Governance: Armenia’s universal health insurance premium is set at 129,600 drams for all beneficiary groups, with any future changes decided annually by the National Assembly; meanwhile, the government has elected a new board and general director for the fund. EU Engagement: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met EU ambassadors to reaffirm cooperation on reforms, rule of law, economic ties, infrastructure, energy sustainability, and regional stability. SME Financing Push: Armeconombank and the IRIS Business Incubator backed 27 agri and tourism entrepreneurs with financing access after a training program focused on digital/green transformation and AI. Public Space Investment: IDBank will fund the renovation of Yerevan’s Moscow Park, expanding green zones, upgrading lighting and recreation areas. Phone Market Crackdown: Armenia plans to introduce IMEI registration from Jan 1, 2027 to curb illegal phone sales, with experts warning about data-security risks. Exports Watch: Economy Minister Papoyan reported fresh export figures for apricots, cherries, peppers, and flowers, while noting Russia-linked restrictions are pushing diversification.

Investor & Banking: Lion Finance Group’s Investor Day 2026 in Tbilisi drew about 100 international investors and analysts, with Central Bank Governor Martin Galstyan and Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan among speakers; the event also highlighted LFG’s strategy, digital push, and its FTSE 100 inclusion. Energy & Utilities: Armenia is set to decide in mid-July on Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) being declared a project of overriding public interest, a move tied to possible concession management and compensation; ENA owner Samvel Karapetyan urged the public not to take the nationalization talk seriously. Health Insurance: Universal health insurance is expanding smoothly: about 1.7m beneficiaries so far, with coverage widening from Jan 1, 2027 to civil-law workers, taxi drivers and registered employees, and then to all citizens by 2028. Trade & Agriculture: Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan reported fresh export figures (including apricots, cherries, peppers and flowers) and said Russia’s restrictions are pushing diversification; he also announced a new broader support program for domestic producers. Payments & Fintech: Armeconombank joined ArcaPay, enabling free bank-to-bank transfers via AEB Mobile using a phone number until Dec 31, 2026; EasyPay kiosks now support ArcaQR verification. Tech & Regulation: Armenia is moving toward IMEI code control to curb illegal phone imports and “shadow” sales, with experts calling for market analysis before rollout. Public Works: IDBank and Yerevan Municipality agreed to renovate Moscow Park for the bank’s 35th anniversary, focusing on green zones, lighting and recreation upgrades.

EAEU vs EU Tensions: Russian Deputy FM Mikhail Galuzin says it’s “unacceptable” for Armenia to pursue EU accession while keeping EAEU benefits, urging a near-term referendum and warning experts will assess consequences of suspending Armenia’s EAEU participation. TRIPP Transit Debate: Galuzin adds that the “Trump Route” would only work with Russian participation, citing Russian border-guard involvement and EAEU rules, while noting TRIPP prospects look “ambiguous.” Artsakh Housing Update: Armenia’s Social Ministry says 6,911 Artsakh families (about 28,400 people) have received housing program certificates, with changes also targeting divorced parents and data gaps. Phone IMEI Crackdown: Armenia plans IMEI code control for cell phones via amendments to the “On Electronic Communications” law, aiming to curb counterfeit devices, tax losses, and security risks. Banking & Markets: AMIO Bank launches an IPO of AMD 3bn in bonds (9.75% coupon, 2-year maturity); AraratBank starts dividend payouts of AMD 4bn. Trade & Energy: Armenia-Iraq annual trade is about $400m, with a draft transport agreement ready; U.S. Charge d’Affaires a.i. David Allen visited ContourGlobal’s Goris site to discuss energy security cooperation. Business Outlook: Luys Foundation flags faster growth in May (11.7%) but warns exports fell 11.5% in May and foreign trade remains volatile.

Armenia-Iran Infrastructure: Work has officially started on the 7.2 km Kajaran Tunnel under the North–South corridor, with a reported $400m price tag and completion targeted for 2032, while officials also discussed modernization of the Armenia–Iran border crossing to boost trade throughput. Power Sector Decision: Armenia’s government is set to decide in mid-July on recognizing Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) as a public interest priority, paving the way for valuation and compensation as the nationalization process moves forward. EAEU vs EU Tensions: Russia’s deputy foreign minister says Armenia must take Moscow’s view into account on the TRIPP “Trump Route” transit corridor and keep EAEU rules in mind, while also warning that finding alternative European markets for goods currently sold to Russia is unlikely. Export Pressure: An economist says Russia’s staged import restrictions have jeopardized about $594m of Armenian-made goods (around 2.4% of GDP), with seasonal agricultural sales hit hardest. Local Business & Finance: Ardshinbank was named Armenia’s best bank in four categories at the Global Banking & Finance Review Awards, and AraratBank highlighted SME lending growth in 2025. Digital Economy: Viva launched “Business Hub,” a self-service SMS tool for businesses to reach customers across Armenia’s mobile networks, and Armenia and the US signed an IT cooperation statement focused on AI.

IMEI Regulation Debate: Tigran Jrbashyan says Armenia’s planned unified IMEI registration and monitoring system should be justified economically and legally, arguing the EU typically relies more on customs, operator-law enforcement cooperation, and criminal liability than mandatory device-by-device state registration. Armenia-Israel Diplomatic Shock: Israel’s cabinet unanimously approved recognizing the Armenian genocide, a move set for Knesset ratification and widely seen as a rebuke to Turkey amid worsening ties. Infrastructure & Connectivity: Iran and Armenia took part in the Kajaran Tunnel launch ceremony under the North-South Highway project, aiming to cut the route by ~14 km, raise speeds, and reduce winter pass risks. Food Transit Through Azerbaijan: Another Russian wheat shipment—770 tons in 11 rail wagons—moved to Armenia via Azerbaijan, alongside ongoing fuel deliveries, underscoring the growing role of regional transit corridors. Tech & Trade Compliance: A guide explains EAC certification under the EAEU customs union, warning buyers against unverified electronics that may not meet safety and market-access rules. Sports Business Signal: Eduard Spertsyan’s €25m transfer to Saudi Pro League club Al Ahli highlights continued investment in Armenian talent abroad. Politics Watch: The Constitutional Court hearing on election challenges continues, with the court expected to rule by July 4.

Election Court Battle: Armenia’s Constitutional Court is set to rule by July 4 on consolidated lawsuits challenging the June 14 parliamentary election results, with the Central Election Commission urging rejection; New Force says it won’t take part, while Prosperous Armenia argues for a change to the vote-counting mechanism. Israel-Turkey Rift With Armenia Angle: Israel’s cabinet unanimously recognized the Armenian genocide, a move widely read as a rebuke to Turkey and tied to broader regional tensions. Trade Corridor Watch: Azerbaijan continues to route Russian wheat to Armenia via rail through its territory, underscoring the growing role of the South Caucasus transit corridor for Armenia’s supply chains. EAEU Pressure Point: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that the EAEU must prove it still works via free movement, warning that persistent disruptions would mean the union “doesn’t exist,” while Russia’s officials frame the choice as a crossroads toward EAEU over EU. Tech & Business: Microchip’s Armenian office received a U.S. export license for advanced FPGA development, a boost for local high-value tech work; Armenia is also working with the EEC on a unified digital platform to simplify EAEU public procurement access for companies. Finance & Markets: Unibank plans to pay AMD 9.3 bln in dividends, while the Central Bank says Armenian banks built buffers of about $500m against real estate risks. Sports Deal: Eduard Spertsyan is set to join Saudi Pro League side Al Ahli in a reported $25m transfer, signaling continued talent flows from Armenia’s football to global leagues.

Armenia-EU Connectivity: Armenia and the EU pushed economic resilience and new market access, with talks on transport and export support after recent restrictions on Armenian goods. Digital Procurement: Armenia is working with the Eurasian Economic Commission to build a unified digital platform to make EAEU public procurement easier for Armenian firms. Phone Surveillance Debate: A new IMEI registration database bill is drawing sharp criticism over fears of “total control” of citizens’ phone data. AI Partnership: Armenia and the U.S. signed an AI Opportunity Partnership statement focused on pro-innovation rules, AI supply chains, and private investment. Energy & Utilities: Armenia moved to recognize 100% of ENA (Electric Networks of Armenia) as a public priority, aiming to secure uninterrupted power supply. Food Exports Under Pressure: Russia suspended fish imports from Armenia, adding to broader export strain as certification and market access tighten. Agriculture to Europe: Armenian officials met Dutch partners to expand flower exports to EU markets via long-term cooperation with Royal FloraHolland. Banking: Unibank will pay AMD 9.3 bln in dividends, while VTB reported weaker May profit under IFRS. Sports & Economy Angle: Eduard Spertsyan’s €25m transfer to Saudi club Al Ahli highlights continued global demand for Armenian talent.

Semiconductors & AI: Microchip Technology’s Armenia office received a U.S. export license to develop advanced FPGA technologies, a boost for local high-value chip design and validation. EAEU Procurement Digitalization: Armenia is working with the Eurasian Economic Commission to build a unified digital platform to make EAEU public procurement participation easier for Armenian firms. EU Connectivity Push: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to visit Azerbaijan and Armenia on July 1-2, with talks focused on peace, transport corridor plans, and easing trade rules for Armenian goods. Russia Fish Ban Hits Exports: Rosselkhoznadzor temporarily suspended imports of all fish products from Armenia, tightening pressure on a sector heavily dependent on the Russian market. Power Sector Nationalization Move: Armenia launched a draft law to recognize 100% of Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) shares as a public priority, aiming to secure uninterrupted power supply. Phone Surveillance Debate: A bill to create a unified IMEI database would give the state broad control over citizens’ phones, drawing sharp criticism from security experts. Election Court Timeline: Armenia’s Constitutional Court began hearings on challenges to June 7 parliamentary election results, with a decision due no later than July 4. Armenia-U.S. AI Partnership: Armenia and the U.S. signed an AI Opportunity Partnership statement under the #PaxSilicaSummit, targeting pro-innovation regulation and resilient AI supply chains.

Armenia-EU Trade Push: Armenia and the EU discussed strengthening economic resilience and exploring new markets, with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set to visit Azerbaijan and Armenia on July 1-2 to focus on peace, connectivity and easing trade rules for Armenian goods. EU Market Access for Farmers: Armenian officials met Dutch partners in The Hague to boost flower exports to Europe, including long-term cooperation with Royal FloraHolland and logistics and greenhouse participation. Phone Surveillance Debate: Armenia has moved to create a unified IMEI database that critics say could enable near-total control over citizens’ devices and online activity, raising cybersecurity and privacy concerns. Power Sector State Priority: A draft law would recognize 100% of Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) shares as a public priority, aiming to secure uninterrupted power supply and grid stability. Armenian Economy & Finance: Armenia’s economic activity growth and jobs data continue to point upward, while AraratBank reported 2025 results and plans to expand digital banking. Regional Politics & Legal Fallout: The Constitutional Court began hearings on challenges to June 7 parliamentary election results, with a decision due by July 4. Russia Pressure on Exports: Russia has expanded restrictions and bans on Armenian fish imports, adding pressure as Armenia seeks alternative markets.

SME Finance Boost: Converse Bank and the Asian Development Bank signed a deal of up to $15m to expand lending for Armenia’s micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, including women-led businesses, with a sustainability focus on renewable energy and efficiency. OPEC-backed SME Lending: Ameriabank also secured a $50m OPEC Fund loan to scale SME financing and job creation. AI Partnership: Armenia and the United States signed a joint AI cooperation statement at the Trump Institute of Peace, targeting pro-innovation regulation, broader AI supply-chain cooperation, and more private investment. EU Market Push: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to visit Azerbaijan and Armenia, with peace and transport connectivity on the agenda and a key focus on improving access for Armenian agricultural products to EU markets. Phone IMEI Data Concerns: Armenia approved IMEI registration and monitoring mechanisms, but experts warn it could enable excessive surveillance and data collection. Fish Trade Shock: Russia halted all fish imports from Armenia after certification restrictions expanded, hitting a market that historically accounts for nearly all Armenian fish exports. EAEU Procurement Digital Plan: Armenia’s deputy finance minister said the EAEU is building a digital platform for a single public procurement market, though practical access for Armenian firms remains limited. Currency Watch: The dram strengthened slightly vs the dollar while the euro rose, according to the Central Bank.