AGP Executive Report

Nuclear Deal Watch: Rosatom chief Alexey Likhachev says Armenia will decide the technical design and builder of a new nuclear power plant in the coming months, with Rosatom proposing at least a 1 GW unit; he also reiterated that extending Metsamor’s Unit 2 to 2036 is feasible, while going to 2046 would be economically non-viable. IMF-Backed Reforms: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met IMF mission chief Alexander Timan, stressing that IMF-supported programs help deliver Armenia’s reform agenda, including fiscal and budget policy and regional infrastructure priorities. Cash Flow Pressure: Russia tightened cash-ruble export rules, cutting the individual limit to about 1 million rubles for travel to Armenia and other nearby states, with stricter bans for businesses and entrepreneurs. Hotel & Tourism Demand: Armenia’s economy minister met hotel industry representatives on bottlenecks and skills, as tourist arrivals in Jan-Aug 2026 reached 1.467 million (down 1.7% year-on-year). EU Business Links: Armenian lawmakers and diplomats met Denmark’s DANEX to discuss export diversification, investment, and cooperation in IT, energy and agriculture. Legal/Detention: Former finance minister Gagik Khachatryan’s defense says it still hasn’t received the detention ruling 27 days after arrest, and has filed to the ECHR.

Armenia-EU Push: Deputy FM Vahan Kostanyan met an EU Council COEST delegation in Yerevan, stressing CEPA implementation, security cooperation, and Armenia’s integration into regional transport networks. Airport Investment: PM Nikol Pashinyan met Corporación America Airports’ Martin Eurnekian on Zvartnots and Shirak upgrades; the concessionaire plans about $400–425m to modernize capacity and double passenger traffic. Energy Ownership Process: Armenia held new public hearings on recognizing 100% of Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) shares as a priority public-interest asset, paving the way for nationalization. EAEU Trade Pressure: Armenia says the EEC will decide in October on Russian restrictions on Armenian goods; officials cite sharp declines in trade turnover and exports to Russia/EAEU. Regional Connectivity Outlook: A World Bank report says Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor investments could more than triple trade volumes by 2040, with Armenia included as links are expected in the 2030s. Public Opinion on Security: A Gallup survey found 54.4% of Armenians support keeping Russia’s 102nd base in Gyumri, while 28.9% back withdrawal. Elections Under Scrutiny: A PACE report on Armenia’s June 7 vote cites violations by the Civil Contract party and highlights polarization and external interference concerns. TRIPP/Peace Track: Pashinyan told the UNGA that TRIPP implementation is moving forward and that unresolved issues include missing persons, demining, and detainee returns.

Aviation & Tourism Investment: PM Nikol Pashinyan met Corporación América Airports’ Martin Eurnekian to discuss scaling up Zvartnots and Shirak airports, with planned $400–425m modernization aimed at doubling passenger traffic and boosting tourism. EU Integration & Connectivity: Armenia reaffirmed its EU track in talks with the EU COEST working group, focusing on CEPA implementation, security cooperation, and regional transport connectivity—while Russia-linked pressure and calls for an EU-vs-EAEU referendum remain in the background. Energy Governance: New public hearings were held on a draft resolution to recognize 100% of Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) shares as a priority public interest, paving the way for nationalization. Trade Shock Watch: Armenia’s Economy Minister said the Eurasian Economic Commission will decide in October on whether Russian restrictions on Armenian goods should be treated as trade barriers. Banking & Macroeconomy: The Union of Banks of Armenia met an IMF delegation for the first program review, covering lending, deposits, interest rates, and financial stability. Tech & Talent: Firebird Build wrapped up in Yerevan with $105,000 in prizes, pushing physical AI and robotics prototypes. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky flagged an active phishing campaign impersonating Zoom and Docusign targeting Armenia and the region. Currency: The dram edged down to about AMD 363.34 per $1; the euro was around AMD 413.19.

Energy & Costs: Armenia saw another jump in fuel prices, with AI-92 averaging about 600 drams per liter and diesel around 710 drams—near record highs after earlier moves to stabilize supply. Retail Disruption: Yerevan’s Dalma Garden Mall will close on Sept. 28 after a fire at an electrical substation knocked out power to roughly 15,000 customers. Regional Trade & Transit: Turkey and Armenia direct trade is moving forward, while UNGA talks also kept focus on peace-linked transport and commerce. EU Market Access: The EU approved temporary trade preferences for Armenian products, with officials pushing for broader market uptake. Health Policy Watch: WHO’s leadership race is underway with six candidates, including Armenian pediatric oncologist Gevorg Tamamyan, as funding and US ties remain key pressure points. Geopolitics & Sanctions: The US escalated efforts to isolate Iran economically, tightening pressure on airlines and banks—an issue that can ripple into South Caucasus logistics.

EU Trade Boost for Armenia: The EU Council adopted temporary trade-liberalization measures, easing duties on about 80% of Armenian goods to support exports amid Russian restrictions. Tech & AI Cooperation: Armenia and the EU discussed cooperation in AI, high-tech, digital infrastructure and cybersecurity, with talks also touching standards and market access for Armenian firms. TRIPP Turns Economic: US and regional actors are pushing TRIPP from diplomacy toward financing and feasibility, while analysis warns Armenia’s main risk is delay as competing corridors accelerate. Syunik Gets EU Funding: Under Team Europe’s “Resilient Syunik,” €258m is mobilized for roads, border infrastructure, business support, education and energy links. Peace-Driven Trade Signals: Reports say de facto peace is yielding economic results, including Armenia importing petroleum products from Azerbaijan and exporting aluminum foil. Armenia’s Budget Momentum: State budget revenues rose 14.4% in the first 8 months of 2026, and economic activity growth edged up to 7.3% (Jan–Aug). Sanctions Pressure on Iran Hits Region: US moves to tighten Iran’s economic squeeze are disrupting flights and aviation links, with knock-on effects for regional trade routes.

Azerbaijan Remembrance & Peace Dividend: Azerbaijan marked Sept. 27 Remembrance Day, framing the 2020 war’s end as a shift toward reconciliation and “economic expansion,” pointing to resumed rail links and direct exports to Armenia (over $17m in Jan–Aug 2026, including diesel and AI-92/95 petrol). UNGA Diplomacy (Armenia): Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan met Nepal’s Shisir Khanal in New York to expand cooperation in climate, renewables, IT and AI, while Mirzoyan also joined UN discussions on AI for peace and security. EU Trade & Tech Push: The EU Council adopted temporary liberalization for Armenian products amid Russia-linked restrictions; separately, Armenia and the EU discussed cooperation in AI, high-tech, digital infrastructure and cybersecurity. Syunik Resilience Funding: Under Team Europe’s “Resilient Syunik,” €258m is mobilized for roads, border crossing, business support, education and energy links—positioning Syunik as a resilience and connectivity hub. TRIPP Focus Shifts to Economics: A new analysis argues TRIPP’s key risk is “economic time” as competing regional rail and freight routes already secure financing and start operations. Armenia Health & WHO Race: Pediatric oncologist Gevorg Tamamyan entered the WHO director-general race, backed by Botswana, as the election process heads toward a 2027 shortlist. Armenia–Angola Visa Deal: Armenia signed a visa-exemption agreement with Angola for holders of diplomatic and service passports. Iran Sanctions Hit Aviation (Regional spillover): US pressure on Iran’s economy is driving flight cancellations and route changes, with Armenia still listed among destinations in some reports.

EU Trade & Markets: The EU Council adopted temporary liberalization measures for Armenian products, with economist Gagik Makaryan saying it’s a promising start but Armenia still needs stronger export focus beyond the EAEU. Tech & Cybersecurity: Armenia and the EU discussed expanding cooperation in AI, high-tech, digital infrastructure and cybersecurity, including access for Armenian firms to European markets and joint research/computing links. Syunik Resilience & TRIPP: Under the Team Europe “Resilient Syunik” initiative, €258m is mobilized for roads, border infrastructure, business support, education and energy links—framing Syunik as a key border-region engine for connectivity. Peace Turns Economic: Azerbaijan’s FM Jeyhun Bayramov told the UNGA that de facto peace is in place, pointing to lifted transit restrictions and bilateral trade; Armenia also reported petroleum imports from Azerbaijan and exports like aluminum foil. AI Infrastructure Push: Firebird’s Hrazdan AI project targets 100,000 GPUs across phases, with $7–8bn planned for the next phase. Global Health: WHO chief Tedros warned the next pandemic is “when, not if,” while Armenia co-facilitated UN pandemic-prevention talks and advanced health insurance reforms. Immigration/Compliance: Georgia detained a Belarus activist after forced departure to Armenia, while separate reporting highlights ongoing scrutiny of recruitment/visa-related fraud schemes.

EU trade boost for Armenian producers: EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Koss urged Europeans to buy Armenian goods as Brussels opens its market to almost 80% of Armenian exports, with temporary duty waivers aimed at helping farmers amid Russia’s import curbs. TRIPP governance row: Armenia’s foreign ministry denied any plan to transfer equity in the Armenia-U.S. TRIPP corridor in exchange for investment, after reports claimed Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan would get stakes. Russia-exports pressure: Rosselkhoznadzor said bans on Armenian fish and dairy imports remain in force, citing missing documents from Armenian firms. Armenia-Azerbaijan peace, with economics attached: Azerbaijan’s FM Jeyhun Bayramov told the UNGA that “de facto peace” is already producing results, including lifted transit restrictions and bilateral trade steps. Syunik gets EU money: The EU’s Resilient Syunik Team Europe initiative has mobilized €258m for irrigation, water, business support and cultural heritage. Tech and AI cooperation: Armenia’s high-tech minister met Russia’s ambassador to discuss digitalization, innovation and telecom cooperation. Health diplomacy: Armenian pediatric oncologist Gevorg Tamamyan entered the WHO race for the next director-general, with the election set for May 2027. Aviation links: Aeroflot is adding Krasnodar-Istanbul capacity and launching Krasnodar-Gyumri flights.

EU trade boost: EU Commissioner Marta Kos urged Europeans to buy Armenian products after the EU Council adopted temporary trade-liberalization measures opening the market to almost 80% of Armenian exports for two years, suspending duties on a wide range of goods. Armenia’s macro picture: Armenia’s state budget revenues rose 14.4% in Jan-Aug 2026, while economic activity growth accelerated to 7.3% (from 7.1%), with construction and services leading. IMF talks: Deputy PM Mher Grigoryan met an IMF mission on the second review of the $175m Stand-By Arrangement, focusing on fiscal policy and structural reforms. Currency & fintech: On the interbank market (Sep 22-25), dollar activity stayed steady while ruble activity fell; the dram strengthened against the dollar, euro and ruble. Rate.am and IDBank launched Rate.Trading, a digital FX exchange platform. Energy pressure: Russia resumed gas supplies after repairs, while Russian officials warned alternative gas sources would cost Armenia more. Regional connectivity: UNGA diplomacy kept spotlight on TRIPP and Armenia-Azerbaijan transport unblocking, with both FMs stressing a “positive agenda.”

Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks: Foreign ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov met in New York, stressing peace progress and the unblocking of economic and transport links after the 2025 Washington summit. TRIPP / Transit Push: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the UNGA that TRIPP is moving from words to action, including plans for a TRIPP Development Company and rail link restoration. EU Trade Boost: Armenia’s EU trade preferences for about 80% of exports were formally approved, with Mirzoyan thanking EU member states for autonomous measures. Iran Sanctions Hit Aviation: The UAE suspended flights by Iranian airlines under new US sanctions, adding pressure to regional travel and business links. Armenia Exports: Armenia exported aluminium foil to Azerbaijan for the first time since the peace talks intensified, signaling a thaw in bilateral trade. US Media Funding: The US spent about $7.5m on an Armenia media program supporting outlets and journalists, though funding was later terminated. Dispute in Military Unit: Reports say a 23-year-old contract serviceman died in Sisian after a dispute tied to debts and loan disclosure demands, with investigations ongoing. Artsakh Hearing Tension: A parliament committee hearing on displaced Artsakh Armenians sparked a walkout by ruling Civil Contract lawmakers.

EU Trade Boost: The EU Council formally adopted temporary trade-liberalisation measures for Armenia, suspending import duties on a broad range of goods and liberalising about 80% of Armenian exports to the bloc for two years, with safeguards for EU producers. Energy Pressure: Russia-linked reporting says gas deliveries to Armenia could be halted from November 1 unless Yerevan meets political demands, including limits on discussion of the Russian base and steps affecting Russian-owned assets, while Armenia signals it will diversify supply. Transit & Investment Push: Kazakhstan’s representative called TRIPP a “logical extension” of the Middle Corridor, aiming to cut routes to European markets and support regional connectivity. Sanctions Hit Iran Routes: New US “secondary sanctions” on Iranian airlines triggered flight suspensions in the UAE and other destinations, tightening travel links that also affect Armenia’s wider regional transport environment. Armenia Business Moves: Idram and Glovo launched Idram payments in Armenia; the economy ministry says aluminum foil exports to Azerbaijan have started, while the government allocated AMD 600m for Hrazdan Stadium renovation ahead of the 2027 Francophonie Games. Health Coverage: Armenia’s universal health insurance now covers 1.815m beneficiaries, with over 150bn drams allocated for services already delivered.

EU-Armenia Talks in New York: PM Nikol Pashinyan met European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, stressing EU help for Armenia’s economic diversification and democratic reforms; von der Leyen said Brussels will keep backing Armenian government programs and highlighted connectivity funding and duty-free export prospects. Russia Pressure on Energy: Hraparak reports Moscow could halt gas supplies from Nov. 1 unless Yerevan drops discussion of the Russian 102nd base, acts against Russian-linked firms, and pauses EU accession steps. Turkey Normalization Push: Erdogan met Pashinyan in New York, backing trade and transport normalization and urging momentum in Armenia-Türkiye ties, including business links and restoring the Ani bridge. TRIPP and Regional Connectivity: At the Caspian Business Forum, officials pointed to TRIPP as a potential Middle Corridor link for energy, finance and supply-chain resilience. Iran Flight Disruptions: US sanctions on Iran’s aviation triggered cancellations and route suspensions affecting Georgia and Azerbaijan-linked services, with travelers shifting toward overland options via Turkey and Armenia. Local Economy & Property: Armenia’s prosecutor’s office says 21 hectares will be returned to the Nor Hachn community in Kotayk under settlement agreements.

Armenia’s Growth Outlook: The Asian Development Bank kept its 2026–27 GDP forecast for Armenia at 5–5.5%, citing construction, services and tourism support, while warning Russia-linked import restrictions and Middle East trade disruptions could weigh on exports. Macroeconomic Snapshot: Armenia’s economy grew 6% in the first half of 2026, with agriculture down 11% but construction up 20.2%. EU Trade Readiness: Armenia is stepping up EU export training for food safety and perishable goods, including EU phytosanitary rules and TRACES documentation, as EU trade turnover rises. Border & Infrastructure Finance: The finance ministry discussed border infrastructure modernization, reservoirs and waste management with an EBRD delegation, including possible regional project financing. Transport Connectivity in Geneva: Armenia presented plans to modernize international transport links, including e-CMR, eTIR and electronic permit management. AI & Investment Push: DigiTec 2026 in Yerevan (Nov 20–22) is set to scale into a major regional AI platform, while Firebird raised its AI infrastructure phase-2 estimate to $7–8 bln. Mining Deal: Dynamic Frontier Holdings completed its acquisition of Teghout CJSC, signaling further modernization for copper-molybdenum output. Geopolitics & Corridors: TRIPP remains a key theme in U.S. and regional diplomacy, with Iran’s consent tied to conditions on sovereignty and U.S. military presence near borders. Housing Pressure in Artsakh: A rights official says half of Artsakh families with housing certificates still can’t use them due to limited suitable options and insufficient rent support.

Armenia’s AI push: Bloomberg reports a deal between Armenia and Nvidia could turn the Hrazdan data center into a regional AI hub, with capacity projected to reach 300 MW by end-2027 and 70,000+ advanced Nvidia chips installed. TRIPP logistics: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the TRIPP corridor will usher in a new era for Armenia’s economy, including a rail link with Azerbaijan and potential rail connectivity via Turkey to reshape East-West logistics. Energy pressure: Russia’s Gazprom Armenia announced a gas supply suspension from Sept. 15-25, citing maintenance, while Armenia points to alternative supplies including Iran. Trade with China: Armenia and China signed an international road transport agreement for passengers and cargo, with 2026 H1 trade turnover at $1.8bn (+25.6% y/y). Finance & payments: VTB reported strong SME acquiring growth in H1 2026 and abolished commissions for private education payments via VTB Online. Cyber justice: An Armenian citizen extradited from Ukraine was sentenced in the US to 24 months for Ryuk ransomware extortion, ordered to pay $1.22m restitution. Aviation & tourism: Air Fest Armenia VII returns Sept. 26 to Yegvard, aiming to boost general aviation and aviation tourism. UN biodiversity backdrop: Global nature targets are off track, with 30x30 protection coverage lagging—an issue Armenia will face as it hosts related discussions.

AI & Data Centers: Bloomberg reports Armenia is moving toward becoming a regional AI hub as Firebird’s Hrazdan data center is set to reach 300MW capacity by end-2027, with more than 70,000 advanced Nvidia chips, supporting both local research/public use and foreign clients. Banking & SMEs: VTB says it boosted SME acquiring turnover by 56% in H1 2026, with POS and online payments rising sharply, and it also scrapped the 1% commission on payments for private education via VTB Online. SME Finance Deal: Armeconombank signed a $35m syndicated loan with the OPEC Fund to expand MSME lending, including potential climate-related projects. Trade & Transport: Armenia and China signed an agreement on international road transport of passengers and freight, aiming to deepen connectivity and trade. Land & Property: Armenia’s Prosecutor General won a court appeal to return a 10,000-sq-m Victory Park plot to the state after it was previously alienated for a “Golden Palace” hotel. Energy/Industry Context: Azerbaijan outlined plans to build a full mining-to-metallurgy chain by 2030, pushing industrial processing capacity.

EU Integration Pressure: Russia’s foreign ministry says Armenians should “objectively assess” the risks of EU integration, arguing the March 2025 EU accession process could pull Armenia away from the EAEU and warning that the choice ultimately rests with citizens. Independence Day Diplomacy: Armenia marked its 35th anniversary with major celebrations in Yerevan and messages from leaders including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, with Rubio pointing to progress on TRIPP and deeper economic ties. Armenia’s AI Push: Bloomberg reports Armenia is becoming a top hub for U.S. AI infrastructure, with Firebird’s Hrazdan data center planned to scale to 300MW and tens of thousands of Nvidia chips by end-2027. Energy/Connectivity Context: Separate reporting highlights how regional energy and transport corridors are being reshaped amid wider Middle East and South Caucasus pressures, feeding into the business case for projects like TRIPP. Banking (Regional): VTB says its medium and small business clients carried out 8.2 million deposit transactions in the first seven months of 2026, up 20% year-on-year.